Besides calculating option values, the same procedure provided “fair values”of spread trades—for instance, of buying a 130 strike price call and selling a 140strike price call—and the probability of making a profi t on such a trade (i.e.,what proportion of the 500 possible end points would yield a profi t).For about half a year, the system produced attractive trading opportunities.Then, as the market became more actively traded, profi table spread tradeswent away. And since I did not want to move to Chicago to become aprofessional options trader (which the tighter markets made necessary if champions league Iwanted to continue using the program), I stopped using the system.As far as I can tell, the method was and remains as good as BSM for valuingoptions and spread trades. It certainly is backward looking in relying on historicreturns, but it does not assume that they follow a 8xbet bell-shaped distribution. Itsmain “unrealistic” assumption is that future price changes are independent, eqiprobabilitydraws from a historic pot; and even this is not seriously problematicfor spread trades.